* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 10/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 31 36 42 51 53 57 60 59 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 31 36 42 51 53 57 60 59 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 30 33 36 40 43 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 17 15 15 13 12 9 3 6 10 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 0 -1 -6 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 68 71 72 77 83 105 117 148 132 138 232 249 270 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 161 163 165 164 164 166 165 167 171 166 159 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 70 67 65 63 62 59 58 53 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 8 6 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 15 35 47 38 34 70 62 68 55 29 2 36 33 200 MB DIV 29 54 66 61 55 33 34 68 68 41 33 43 6 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 -2 -2 1 0 5 LAND (KM) 120 128 128 123 93 56 22 11 48 115 168 292 399 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.2 18.5 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.2 101.6 101.9 102.1 102.2 102.2 102.3 102.7 103.5 104.5 106.0 107.7 109.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 3 4 6 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 22 23 23 21 19 19 20 22 27 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 7. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 2. -1. 1. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 26. 28. 32. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.2 101.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 10/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.16 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.94 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 4.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.4% 3.3% 7.4% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 6.5% 5.3% 0.2% 0.1% 5.6% 8.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 18.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 10/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX