* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 10/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 35 40 45 49 55 61 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 35 40 45 49 55 61 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 36 39 42 47 52 58 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 18 14 15 11 11 7 7 6 7 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 1 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -3 -4 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 65 67 70 72 78 101 129 133 186 113 177 203 257 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.3 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 159 160 162 166 166 164 164 166 170 167 163 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -52.8 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 9 8 11 7 11 7 10 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 71 71 69 69 66 60 56 53 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 17 30 41 32 42 61 63 57 49 28 41 34 200 MB DIV 24 35 60 70 51 56 34 61 49 61 53 23 17 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 118 130 133 140 141 100 57 41 64 122 182 270 408 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 100.7 101.2 101.5 101.8 102.1 102.5 102.9 103.2 103.8 104.5 105.6 107.0 108.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 4 3 2 2 3 4 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 21 22 22 23 21 20 20 22 25 25 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 15. 20. 24. 30. 36. 39. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 100.7 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 10/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 142.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.13 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.43 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.77 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 14.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 9.4% 4.1% 1.8% 1.4% 7.8% 11.4% 9.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 0.5% Consensus: 0.4% 8.1% 6.1% 0.6% 0.5% 7.3% 10.0% 3.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 10/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX