* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 10/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 41 46 51 55 60 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 34 41 46 51 55 60 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 30 31 33 36 39 42 46 52 58 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 19 19 18 13 13 12 9 3 7 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 -7 -3 -4 -1 -6 1 SHEAR DIR 66 66 67 69 71 77 117 135 140 173 118 201 224 SST (C) 30.1 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 164 161 161 160 161 164 164 163 163 166 168 169 166 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 11 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 69 68 70 71 69 68 67 64 59 56 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 17 32 39 30 55 58 70 48 42 28 39 200 MB DIV 31 23 34 60 68 54 47 41 52 52 70 40 34 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -2 -1 -5 1 -3 LAND (KM) 115 127 145 153 161 144 89 54 61 94 167 224 349 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.6 17.7 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.4 100.9 101.3 101.7 102.0 102.5 102.8 103.1 103.4 104.0 104.9 106.2 107.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 22 23 24 25 25 23 23 23 24 26 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 7. 16. 25. 31. 36. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 16. 21. 26. 30. 35. 39. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 100.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 10/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 143.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.94 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.06 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.82 -3.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 4.1% 11.9% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.2% 5.8% 4.8% 0.2% 0.1% 5.9% 9.4% 3.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 10/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX