* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 08/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 27 27 24 20 18 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 27 27 24 20 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 23 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 6 8 6 12 14 20 26 28 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -5 -5 -7 -2 -4 0 -2 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 204 223 207 173 170 191 190 225 216 227 231 241 247 SST (C) 26.1 25.5 25.2 23.7 24.2 24.8 23.9 25.0 24.5 25.1 25.4 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 124 118 115 100 105 111 102 113 108 113 116 115 117 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 58 58 56 55 55 55 52 48 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -52 -54 -50 -42 -43 -38 -52 -49 -62 -57 -58 -47 200 MB DIV -3 2 -2 0 -19 -10 -14 8 0 0 1 -19 -20 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 2 4 7 8 6 13 14 11 7 3 LAND (KM) 1873 1923 1978 2046 2116 2047 1802 1570 1380 1244 1129 1031 946 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.9 19.5 20.3 21.4 22.3 23.1 23.5 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.9 129.9 130.9 132.0 133.0 135.3 137.6 139.8 141.7 143.2 144.6 145.8 146.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 9 8 7 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 7 2 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 128.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 08/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.56 2.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.71 -2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.3% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.9% 1.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 7.4% 4.0% 0.3% 0.2% 4.4% 4.1% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 08/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX