* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 08/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 36 36 36 36 35 32 26 24 20 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 36 36 36 36 35 32 26 24 20 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 32 31 28 25 21 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 5 5 8 8 10 16 17 26 31 33 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -5 -4 -6 -4 -3 -2 0 -3 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 194 203 214 189 169 197 189 222 222 235 220 229 226 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 25.7 25.4 24.0 24.5 24.1 24.7 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 120 117 103 108 105 111 106 111 114 112 111 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 66 62 59 58 58 57 58 58 56 51 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -45 -51 -53 -48 -44 -38 -43 -46 -53 -63 -60 -68 200 MB DIV 0 1 5 0 1 -18 -14 7 28 0 1 -1 -7 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 4 7 9 10 9 14 11 4 1 LAND (KM) 1843 1880 1922 1975 2027 2179 1938 1664 1443 1297 1235 1200 1144 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.3 21.5 22.8 24.1 24.9 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.7 131.7 133.9 136.3 138.9 141.1 142.8 143.9 144.7 145.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 11 11 11 12 13 11 9 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 12 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. -2. -8. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 1. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.3 127.9 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.77 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.72 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 14.1% 7.7% 5.4% 3.8% 6.7% 7.7% 4.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 11.4% 8.7% 1.8% 1.3% 6.8% 7.2% 1.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% 13.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 08/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX