* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 08/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 34 35 35 33 30 26 24 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 32 34 34 35 35 33 30 26 24 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 26 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 6 5 4 8 6 11 14 20 25 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 -5 -1 -3 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 296 181 188 209 178 179 173 178 212 220 222 222 223 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.5 23.8 24.5 23.7 24.9 24.4 25.1 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 125 120 118 101 108 100 113 107 113 116 116 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 63 59 58 56 56 56 54 52 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 9 7 6 6 5 4 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -53 -46 -49 -47 -36 -39 -40 -49 -40 -50 -53 -60 200 MB DIV 3 8 5 7 0 -3 -17 -7 15 0 -4 -8 -21 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 1 1 6 6 7 7 11 10 8 6 LAND (KM) 1811 1843 1873 1914 1967 2086 2100 1843 1601 1401 1236 1127 1027 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.1 17.5 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.4 21.4 22.4 23.3 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 127.9 128.8 129.6 130.6 132.6 134.8 137.2 139.5 141.5 143.3 144.7 146.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 12 11 10 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 19 16 12 9 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.9 127.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 08/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 4.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.13 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.74 -3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.4% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.4% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 14.1% 8.1% 4.9% 2.6% 6.1% 4.5% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 11.2% 8.7% 1.6% 0.9% 6.5% 6.2% 0.9% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 08/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX