* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 08/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 32 35 36 36 34 31 30 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 26 30 32 35 36 36 34 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 22 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 3 5 4 7 5 7 10 13 19 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 287 332 170 196 209 162 180 184 214 211 223 207 223 SST (C) 27.6 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.6 23.8 24.7 23.7 23.8 23.8 24.4 24.4 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 133 128 125 119 101 110 100 101 100 105 105 111 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 66 62 57 56 56 57 57 54 47 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -58 -51 -45 -49 -45 -46 -51 -55 -36 -40 -51 -48 200 MB DIV 14 4 12 9 7 9 -12 -19 -2 23 -2 -2 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 1 5 7 7 9 7 9 5 2 LAND (KM) 1764 1811 1835 1857 1899 1999 2128 1999 1779 1614 1504 1419 1315 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.3 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.8 22.0 23.1 23.9 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.0 127.0 127.9 128.7 129.6 131.6 133.6 135.7 137.8 139.5 140.8 141.9 143.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 19 16 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 14. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.5 126.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 08/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.22 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 721.6 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 10.5% 6.0% 3.2% 1.2% 6.9% 5.1% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 4.3% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 08/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX