* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 07/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 21 21 20 20 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 21 21 20 20 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 13 16 18 17 22 26 31 35 33 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -2 -3 -3 4 5 5 1 -1 0 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 268 271 254 246 239 221 218 210 222 221 248 257 258 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.2 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.7 24.9 24.9 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 143 143 136 125 119 116 110 112 112 111 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 75 73 71 63 59 56 54 49 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 3 -2 -9 -11 0 -10 -5 -22 -17 -28 -35 -59 200 MB DIV 43 71 87 94 93 101 43 44 46 5 0 -14 -18 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 1 1 6 11 7 4 6 8 9 12 LAND (KM) 2239 2268 2284 2280 2287 2252 2267 2183 1946 1713 1488 1256 1039 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.4 12.0 12.7 14.2 15.6 16.9 17.8 18.8 19.4 20.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 127.2 128.0 128.7 129.2 129.9 131.1 132.6 134.3 136.4 138.5 140.6 142.8 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 12 10 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 27 32 35 28 8 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 25. 29. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -8. -16. -22. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -8. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.5 127.2 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 07/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.25 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 1.8 to 106.7 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 6.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.5% 2.0% 2.4% 1.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% 0.8% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 07/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX