* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 07/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 14 16 18 21 22 26 31 36 37 39 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 0 -4 3 5 10 4 0 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 260 255 239 239 224 218 217 220 215 246 254 259 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.6 25.5 25.4 24.7 24.9 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 143 140 142 137 130 118 118 111 112 110 111 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -53.4 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 78 77 76 76 75 72 65 60 57 54 51 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 3 0 0 -4 -6 -3 -10 -13 -14 -21 -30 -39 200 MB DIV 42 46 81 100 96 92 72 47 71 37 14 -6 -37 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 0 2 6 10 10 4 3 1 9 8 LAND (KM) 2182 2207 2229 2230 2235 2223 2248 2232 2014 1769 1540 1330 1127 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.5 14.0 15.3 16.6 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.3 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 126.3 127.1 127.9 128.5 129.1 130.5 132.1 133.9 135.8 138.0 140.1 142.1 144.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 10 11 10 11 12 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 25 29 31 9 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 25. 29. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -18. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -6. -11. -13. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 10.4 126.3 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 07/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.56 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.4 721.6 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 6.5% 1.9% 0.8% 0.4% 1.6% 2.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 07/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX