* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982018 07/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 39 38 29 23 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 32 36 41 39 38 29 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 23 23 21 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 16 13 9 9 11 15 16 18 21 28 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 0 -1 -3 -5 1 3 2 -1 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 225 249 272 266 256 237 228 220 228 214 225 216 233 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.2 27.5 26.7 26.0 24.4 24.1 24.0 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 143 140 140 145 138 132 125 108 105 104 102 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.5 -54.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 72 71 74 77 79 78 75 71 64 58 53 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 10 12 14 12 13 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 17 16 14 9 7 -4 -4 3 -2 -2 -18 -15 -27 200 MB DIV 61 45 44 55 66 92 97 86 97 65 60 30 8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 4 13 9 3 7 8 LAND (KM) 2177 2238 2270 2283 2283 2268 2247 2194 2162 2200 1959 1676 1456 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.6 8.9 9.3 9.8 10.9 12.0 13.8 15.8 17.9 19.4 20.9 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 123.8 124.8 125.7 126.4 127.0 128.0 128.8 129.9 131.5 133.6 136.1 138.8 141.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 12 14 14 15 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 34 28 24 23 27 32 11 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 17. 23. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -4. -8. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. -17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 10. 8. 10. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 14. 13. 4. -2. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 8.5 123.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982018 INVEST 07/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 1.8 to 106.7 0.24 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.46 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 53.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.83 -3.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.1% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.8% 18.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 36.0% 14.5% 8.1% 3.3% 14.6% 23.4% 15.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.6% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2.8% 2.0% 1.7% Consensus: 1.1% 20.6% 11.1% 2.8% 1.1% 11.1% 14.4% 5.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982018 INVEST 07/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX