* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 09/23/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 27 30 36 42 45 45 42 40 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 23 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 9 9 3 3 10 12 29 35 53 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 0 -1 2 0 -2 -9 SHEAR DIR 75 69 67 62 40 87 286 217 201 188 193 214 218 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 160 162 163 163 162 160 157 157 158 159 155 149 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.7 -52.5 -52.2 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 9 8 11 8 13 9 14 9 11 6 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 70 67 63 60 55 55 55 61 65 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 56 74 91 88 80 66 41 47 36 33 -3 -19 200 MB DIV 48 34 67 60 15 4 7 -3 43 75 82 92 74 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 -3 3 1 0 3 7 20 31 LAND (KM) 145 112 54 -24 -112 -238 -321 -369 -388 -435 -467 -530 -617 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.1 19.8 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.7 26.1 28.0 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.6 104.4 104.0 103.6 102.9 102.2 101.5 101.6 102.1 103.0 103.9 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 8 8 6 5 4 5 7 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 29 50 55 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 14. 22. 29. 32. 34. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -8. -16. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 20. 20. 18. 15. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 104.6 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/23/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.88 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.36 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.4 735.9 to -82.5 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 21.4% 9.7% 4.5% 2.5% 29.9% 31.7% 57.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.9% 16.3% 8.4% 1.7% 0.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/23/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##