* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 09/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 47 50 55 51 48 43 37 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 47 50 55 51 48 43 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 33 36 38 38 38 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 13 10 10 6 9 7 14 20 31 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -6 -2 0 -5 -1 -1 2 -1 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 86 90 94 86 102 138 118 125 154 193 193 199 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.5 29.5 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 161 162 163 163 163 164 162 158 159 164 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 76 74 74 74 72 68 61 55 52 44 42 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 9 9 8 11 9 10 7 7 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 54 69 66 64 92 85 101 79 91 69 105 84 200 MB DIV 51 77 78 47 40 58 45 48 30 31 0 -5 1 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 2 0 0 -4 -2 3 LAND (KM) 229 216 196 152 98 25 26 39 68 145 251 151 67 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.5 19.3 19.7 19.9 20.0 20.4 21.1 22.5 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.5 105.5 105.4 105.3 105.2 105.5 105.8 106.2 107.1 108.0 108.2 108.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 3 5 5 3 2 1 3 5 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 25 24 24 23 17 15 25 24 14 20 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 466 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 29. 33. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 3. 5. 2. 2. -0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 22. 25. 30. 26. 23. 18. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.1 105.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.20 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.48 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.9 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 14.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 7.2% 5.0% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.7% Consensus: 0.1% 6.6% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 6.8% 6.7% 8.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##