* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 09/22/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 45 44 43 41 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 43 45 44 43 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 31 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 21 20 15 16 11 12 14 15 13 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -6 -3 -2 -2 -1 0 3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 81 83 92 98 103 97 82 88 100 104 140 168 189 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 154 155 157 157 158 161 161 163 157 153 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -52.6 -51.7 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 7 10 8 11 7 9 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 75 74 73 72 68 61 55 47 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 37 51 55 50 61 74 81 87 90 76 62 54 200 MB DIV 47 41 71 79 62 81 49 82 33 50 6 -10 -37 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -3 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 261 280 290 285 270 211 176 137 133 167 215 299 317 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.9 17.4 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 105.2 105.6 105.8 105.7 105.6 105.4 105.1 105.1 105.6 106.4 107.4 108.5 109.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 0 1 2 2 2 2 4 4 7 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 25 25 25 24 23 23 25 24 20 10 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 28. 32. 34. 35. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 20. 19. 18. 16. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.7 105.2 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.23 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 49.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 1.7% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 0.1% 5.5% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 4.5% 5.0% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##