* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 09/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 47 50 52 51 49 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 35 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 30 31 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 19 23 20 14 9 7 4 7 18 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -6 0 1 -1 -3 -8 -1 1 7 SHEAR DIR 92 80 86 90 89 73 77 96 131 204 202 208 216 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.8 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 153 153 154 158 163 164 165 165 164 163 159 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 9 8 9 9 10 9 8 8 9 11 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 76 76 74 72 65 60 55 52 51 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 33 37 50 59 44 80 78 104 74 87 64 45 200 MB DIV 71 58 64 97 96 29 61 70 59 41 22 49 60 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 2 10 LAND (KM) 235 264 277 277 255 176 54 -65 -70 -70 -130 -260 -467 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.6 17.2 18.5 19.8 20.8 21.8 22.9 24.4 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 104.5 105.0 105.2 105.2 105.0 104.6 104.4 104.5 104.6 104.7 104.5 104.1 103.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 1 3 5 6 6 5 6 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 24 24 23 22 22 56 62 60 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 26. 24. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 104.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 23.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.22 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 48.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 3.2% 8.3% 31.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.8% 3.1% Consensus: 0.1% 6.6% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 8.1% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##