* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 09/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 44 46 47 47 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 40 44 46 47 41 32 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 33 34 35 36 32 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 12 15 20 16 18 19 16 11 14 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -4 -4 0 0 4 2 2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 118 99 96 102 102 99 91 91 88 80 101 138 169 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 158 157 154 157 157 160 161 162 163 162 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.6 -51.5 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 9 7 9 8 11 8 11 8 11 700-500 MB RH 75 74 74 73 72 72 71 71 70 65 60 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 41 45 52 63 51 51 66 90 92 97 80 82 200 MB DIV 58 68 41 47 65 61 48 52 92 28 26 26 28 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 3 2 0 -1 0 -4 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 118 166 196 226 246 280 250 191 91 -15 -122 -177 -178 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.1 17.1 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.8 20.9 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 104.9 105.5 105.9 106.1 106.2 105.6 104.8 104.1 103.6 103.4 103.5 103.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 3 2 1 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 26 27 28 28 26 24 23 50 55 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 359 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 6. 14. 22. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 15. 19. 21. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 104.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.86 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.47 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.9% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 13.9% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 9.1% 4.0% 2.9% 1.5% 11.5% 26.2% 39.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.4% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.9% 2.7% 1.4% Consensus: 1.1% 11.8% 6.3% 1.1% 0.5% 9.1% 14.3% 13.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##