* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 09/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 36 44 54 58 63 62 64 62 59 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 31 36 44 54 58 63 62 64 62 59 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 24 25 28 31 34 37 41 44 48 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 12 14 13 20 21 20 14 11 12 16 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -4 -3 -2 0 0 3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 77 78 93 92 88 88 89 81 73 100 76 95 115 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 158 157 154 154 156 156 158 161 164 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.9 -51.9 -52.3 -51.1 -51.8 -51.3 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 8 7 8 7 9 7 11 7 9 5 700-500 MB RH 75 72 73 74 75 75 75 76 74 71 64 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 6 7 8 8 10 9 11 10 12 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 49 34 34 34 28 54 45 40 56 91 101 96 77 200 MB DIV 51 36 47 67 58 64 86 80 55 99 56 -9 -24 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 -2 LAND (KM) 59 94 160 221 280 339 352 282 190 107 108 126 230 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.0 106.4 105.9 105.0 104.2 104.2 104.9 106.0 107.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 7 6 5 2 3 5 4 4 5 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 24 25 28 27 27 25 23 23 24 25 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -1. 5. 14. 23. 30. 35. 37. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 9. 7. 9. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 24. 34. 38. 43. 42. 44. 42. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 17.5 103.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 09/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 139.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.91 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 48.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.84 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 40.8% 76.0% 54.9% 49.2% 41.3% 52.0% 42.8% 56.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 24.5% 11.3% 4.1% 2.1% 2.0% 3.2% 2.1% Consensus: 13.8% 33.5% 22.1% 17.8% 14.5% 18.0% 15.3% 19.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 09/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##