* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 07/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 30 27 27 29 31 32 35 38 41 V (KT) LAND 30 31 30 30 30 27 27 29 31 32 35 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 28 25 21 19 17 17 18 20 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 27 28 28 28 16 4 13 11 10 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 0 -1 -2 -5 -1 5 -2 -8 -8 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 311 306 300 291 296 293 289 285 159 149 122 109 108 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.9 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 140 138 139 142 147 150 149 150 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 65 65 67 70 72 70 63 61 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -35 -27 -23 -25 -23 -9 12 36 51 53 49 43 200 MB DIV 40 28 26 25 29 32 47 17 8 -7 6 21 5 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 0 0 0 3 1 5 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1222 1232 1259 1296 1338 1430 1547 1700 1888 2055 2141 2186 2198 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.1 14.8 14.1 12.7 11.3 10.7 10.6 11.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.5 118.0 118.6 119.2 119.9 121.3 122.6 123.9 124.9 125.6 126.1 126.6 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 6 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 22 20 19 12 8 11 32 52 53 52 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. -0. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 117.5 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 106.7 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.31 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 130.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.2 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##