* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 07/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 23 27 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 24 23 22 21 23 27 28 28 29 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 22 26 27 28 21 9 6 8 8 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 4 1 0 -2 -3 3 3 -2 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 303 315 314 307 297 300 293 269 166 202 245 248 267 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 144 143 141 139 140 143 145 147 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 65 68 67 68 72 73 73 73 69 65 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -49 -45 -35 -30 -26 -14 2 23 36 35 41 22 200 MB DIV 41 46 36 29 38 43 56 33 25 -5 19 23 14 700-850 TADV -4 -4 0 0 0 1 2 3 1 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1258 1279 1311 1346 1375 1457 1535 1629 1758 1888 1971 2042 2108 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.2 13.9 13.3 12.7 12.6 12.9 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.7 118.3 118.9 119.4 120.5 121.7 122.7 123.8 124.9 125.9 127.1 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 19 18 19 24 15 12 19 32 29 20 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 117.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.15 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.3 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##