* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 07/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 25 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 22 20 19 19 19 20 21 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 26 25 27 28 22 22 8 10 12 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 0 -4 0 -2 5 1 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 310 312 323 322 317 308 302 286 248 173 205 235 256 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 144 144 143 141 140 139 141 143 146 149 148 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 64 66 67 67 69 71 75 76 72 65 65 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -57 -60 -62 -58 -51 -31 -2 11 29 28 31 31 200 MB DIV 28 35 34 31 40 51 52 32 16 8 -22 31 18 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -1 0 0 1 4 3 2 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1242 1255 1288 1323 1368 1442 1500 1563 1634 1736 1862 2011 2175 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.3 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.2 13.1 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.6 118.2 118.7 119.2 120.1 120.9 121.6 122.4 123.5 125.1 126.9 128.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 21 19 18 23 23 17 14 17 24 20 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 28. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -13. -15. -15. -15. -13. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.9 117.0 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.26 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.91 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.6 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##