* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 07/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 26 29 33 39 42 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 26 26 29 33 39 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 23 21 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 18 21 26 23 18 8 3 3 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 0 0 -6 -1 0 2 2 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 338 344 334 330 330 324 322 315 324 29 82 209 233 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 146 146 145 144 144 144 143 143 143 144 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 65 65 67 67 72 75 78 80 80 74 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -70 -70 -65 -65 -68 -57 -34 -10 13 36 47 39 32 200 MB DIV 50 29 18 22 40 36 46 21 26 10 15 15 24 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1259 1272 1288 1319 1354 1433 1507 1587 1649 1694 1719 1747 1787 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.4 13.4 13.3 13.0 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5 11.8 12.4 13.3 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 116.4 117.0 117.5 117.9 118.7 119.4 119.8 120.2 120.6 121.3 122.5 124.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 16 15 15 14 16 21 25 26 24 22 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -10. -9. -7. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -4. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 17. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 115.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 106.7 0.15 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.42 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.8% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##