* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 07/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 23 22 20 21 22 25 27 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 25 25 23 22 20 21 22 25 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 18 20 24 26 29 25 13 8 10 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 0 0 0 -2 -6 -3 4 5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 328 335 337 331 324 321 309 304 293 276 190 195 210 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 147 146 145 143 141 140 140 138 140 141 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.8 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 65 66 70 70 74 75 77 77 75 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -66 -71 -67 -67 -68 -53 -31 -15 7 25 39 29 200 MB DIV 58 58 38 24 30 44 44 37 52 17 31 10 24 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -2 -4 -3 0 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 LAND (KM) 1245 1244 1247 1273 1301 1392 1471 1539 1613 1662 1700 1722 1718 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.4 13.3 13.2 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.7 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.6 119.6 120.4 121.1 121.6 122.2 122.8 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 18 16 16 14 15 19 19 18 18 19 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -11. -16. -17. -16. -14. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 115.1 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.39 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 102.8 735.9 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.5 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.0% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##