* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982017 07/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 31 31 32 33 33 31 30 29 30 32 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 31 31 32 33 33 31 30 29 30 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 28 26 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 13 17 19 19 25 23 17 13 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 2 0 0 2 4 -2 0 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 341 344 349 351 337 335 320 313 301 282 264 219 210 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 147 147 147 145 143 140 140 140 141 143 145 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 66 66 67 68 71 75 77 81 79 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -65 -67 -73 -77 -77 -78 -68 -48 -29 -8 9 28 34 200 MB DIV 56 53 50 27 27 41 31 42 30 56 16 24 17 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 LAND (KM) 1278 1280 1284 1306 1328 1387 1464 1523 1595 1670 1764 1858 1929 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.1 12.9 12.5 12.2 12.2 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.2 115.9 116.5 117.2 118.4 119.5 120.3 121.1 122.0 122.9 123.9 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 16 15 14 15 18 18 17 24 40 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 20. 25. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -13. -13. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 114.7 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.21 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 0.0 to 106.7 0.16 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.8 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.1% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 3.1% 3.4% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982017 INVEST 07/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##