* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 10/12/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 22 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 17 19 23 25 20 24 18 18 22 38 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 0 -1 -2 0 -6 -3 -4 -6 -11 -13 SHEAR DIR 199 214 231 238 236 238 225 230 239 255 263 281 297 SST (C) 26.6 26.3 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 125 124 122 120 118 118 117 118 118 122 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 57 58 55 50 51 45 42 39 38 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -8 -7 -16 -10 -28 -41 -43 -66 -68 -73 -56 -50 200 MB DIV 49 54 56 40 42 22 -8 -13 -13 -8 6 6 -5 700-850 TADV 5 2 2 4 3 1 -1 1 1 0 -2 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 1467 1506 1557 1610 1690 1907 2118 1935 1747 1580 1412 1256 1073 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.2 20.0 19.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 124.1 125.4 126.7 127.8 129.0 131.6 134.1 136.3 138.1 139.7 141.3 142.8 144.6 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 12 11 13 11 9 8 8 7 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -5. -10. -16. -19. -21. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.5 124.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 10/12/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.58 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.71 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.59 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.8% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 10/12/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##