* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 10/11/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 1 5 8 12 12 16 19 22 15 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 2 4 -1 -8 0 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 38 50 340 264 250 272 255 237 201 206 201 240 247 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.5 25.1 24.7 24.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 145 143 143 142 134 129 126 120 115 110 104 103 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 67 70 67 63 58 51 48 41 41 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 21 21 18 10 1 -9 -34 -48 -55 -89 -92 -99 200 MB DIV 65 75 67 63 60 68 9 13 20 -16 2 -3 2 700-850 TADV -5 -1 0 1 0 1 0 -2 -3 0 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1462 1541 1587 1637 1672 1744 1822 1973 2124 1842 1593 1458 1386 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.7 17.8 18.7 19.8 20.9 22.0 22.9 23.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 121.4 122.7 123.9 124.9 127.0 129.1 131.6 134.5 137.2 139.7 141.2 142.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 12 12 11 12 14 14 13 11 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 19 11 13 17 15 11 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 448 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -9. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 0. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.6 119.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 10/11/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.20 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.71 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 99.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.67 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.1% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.0% 6.7% 0.4% 0.2% 4.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 10.9% 8.5% 0.2% 0.1% 1.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 10/11/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##