* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 10/10/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 32 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 32 30 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 18 13 8 15 33 33 29 9 10 1 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -2 0 0 1 5 4 7 2 1 -3 SHEAR DIR 27 24 20 11 351 255 253 255 260 241 258 248 293 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.0 25.5 24.5 23.5 23.1 22.9 22.9 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 153 149 137 122 110 98 95 92 91 91 89 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -54.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 63 64 66 66 59 49 46 40 37 35 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 7 -1 -11 -27 -47 -44 -64 -81 -94 -105 -130 -136 200 MB DIV 65 42 52 48 30 50 31 -21 -22 -14 -35 -1 -8 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -10 -7 -1 3 10 7 3 -1 1 2 3 LAND (KM) 1178 1180 1166 1163 1173 1192 1220 1313 1541 1685 1795 1860 1860 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.3 19.1 21.5 22.9 23.2 23.8 24.5 25.1 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.0 115.0 116.2 117.5 119.0 122.1 124.9 126.9 129.5 132.5 134.8 136.2 136.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 17 19 20 15 10 14 13 9 6 2 HEAT CONTENT 30 27 27 39 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -7. -14. -17. -18. -15. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 5. -1. -8. -12. -12. -11. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 114.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 10/10/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.59 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.2% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 7.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 10/10/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##