* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 10/10/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 32 35 39 43 45 41 33 26 20 17 15 V (KT) LAND 25 29 32 35 39 43 45 41 33 26 20 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 31 28 24 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 21 14 5 11 23 33 31 29 32 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -4 -6 -3 0 -1 0 3 4 2 -6 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 27 19 29 29 10 259 240 248 249 262 232 233 226 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.4 27.4 26.5 25.9 25.3 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 151 141 132 125 117 114 115 115 116 114 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 3 1 0 1 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 69 68 65 65 66 64 58 51 46 42 40 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 7 -8 -16 -33 -20 -31 -35 -54 -40 -50 -72 200 MB DIV 100 80 46 54 50 38 60 21 10 4 -1 0 5 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -9 -2 7 2 5 -5 -10 -4 -2 1 LAND (KM) 1189 1231 1231 1235 1236 1260 1335 1441 1661 1953 1977 1699 1437 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.3 17.6 19.7 21.1 21.3 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.5 114.8 116.0 117.3 118.6 121.7 124.7 127.2 129.8 132.9 135.9 138.6 141.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 16 17 19 16 12 13 15 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 25 33 35 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -5. -11. -17. -21. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 16. 8. 1. -5. -8. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 113.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 10/10/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.16 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.53 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.61 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.8% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 14.0% 8.0% 1.6% 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% Consensus: 1.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 10/10/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##