* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 42 52 59 62 61 59 57 57 54 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 42 52 59 62 61 59 57 57 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 41 47 52 54 52 50 49 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 9 10 11 5 7 9 9 11 12 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -6 -7 -9 -7 -5 -4 0 1 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 32 44 36 36 29 77 83 128 191 173 200 198 217 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.1 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 153 149 144 138 135 133 130 128 128 130 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 69 69 67 66 64 64 61 58 54 52 51 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 15 15 14 13 13 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 23 25 28 27 30 41 33 46 51 58 34 56 47 200 MB DIV 71 71 74 47 43 31 27 53 50 45 29 33 43 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -6 -4 0 0 0 5 2 2 -1 2 LAND (KM) 2117 2023 1929 1849 1770 1606 1471 1291 1092 896 729 542 357 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 31 31 35 37 31 24 19 9 10 5 7 9 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 29. 32. 31. 29. 27. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 136.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.79 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.43 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.39 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 123.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.73 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.22 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 22.2% 16.8% 11.4% 0.0% 14.3% 13.8% Logistic: 2.9% 14.6% 6.2% 2.7% 1.2% 6.0% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Consensus: 3.1% 13.7% 8.1% 4.8% 0.4% 6.8% 5.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##