* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 47 57 65 70 70 67 63 60 57 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 47 57 65 70 70 67 63 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 48 55 61 64 63 59 55 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 10 12 10 7 7 8 9 13 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -7 -6 -7 -10 -7 -5 -2 1 2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 19 23 25 21 26 45 72 94 169 199 209 204 215 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 154 154 152 144 139 135 130 126 123 124 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 68 68 67 66 63 58 54 51 50 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 16 16 16 15 14 13 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 17 25 28 33 41 29 40 52 38 30 25 200 MB DIV 100 67 74 67 39 50 28 39 47 20 27 4 12 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -8 -8 -7 -1 0 1 3 5 5 1 0 LAND (KM) 2281 2171 2061 1960 1859 1698 1535 1365 1173 1000 838 680 524 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 31 31 34 28 22 13 10 6 2 3 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 17. 27. 35. 40. 40. 37. 33. 30. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 134.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.44 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.56 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.36 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.55 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.1 to -1.7 0.35 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 10.0% 27.2% 19.6% 13.3% 0.0% 16.0% 15.6% Logistic: 2.9% 13.6% 7.4% 3.2% 1.5% 6.4% 9.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.3% 2.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 3.2% Consensus: 4.3% 16.0% 9.9% 5.6% 0.5% 7.6% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##