* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 53 61 64 64 62 57 52 48 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 53 61 64 64 62 57 52 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 40 46 53 56 56 54 50 46 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 5 4 4 6 3 14 19 25 27 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -5 -9 -4 -3 -3 -2 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 5 357 2 2 329 353 287 239 187 203 206 223 224 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.5 25.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 145 146 147 141 132 127 125 123 117 116 119 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 66 65 64 64 60 58 56 53 49 48 46 44 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 11 11 10 13 15 15 14 14 13 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 32 33 34 33 30 25 31 42 46 33 29 200 MB DIV 109 79 74 67 50 19 41 36 53 38 31 18 15 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -8 -9 -10 -4 0 3 3 8 9 9 8 LAND (KM) 2424 2331 2234 2120 2007 1827 1735 1585 1385 1225 1117 972 787 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 7 6 8 9 8 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 24 19 27 38 23 10 0 5 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 23. 31. 34. 34. 32. 27. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 132.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 3.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 40.3 to 144.5 0.73 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.40 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.59 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 143.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.17 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.8 81.4 to 0.0 0.89 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 27.4% 20.9% 14.6% 0.0% 17.3% 16.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.2% 14.7% 3.3% 1.5% 14.1% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 4.9% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% Consensus: 4.0% 13.5% 12.3% 6.0% 0.5% 10.5% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##