* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 65 70 73 71 69 64 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 39 45 54 65 70 73 71 69 64 61 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 42 52 60 64 64 62 58 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 2 2 2 4 7 10 14 17 21 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -2 -6 -5 -6 -4 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 25 36 53 17 30 350 152 193 176 189 203 214 222 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 149 149 150 146 139 132 132 131 124 121 121 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 65 61 60 57 55 51 48 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 11 14 15 16 15 16 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 13 25 34 42 39 33 40 42 39 39 56 48 59 200 MB DIV 107 107 85 81 73 18 32 25 57 83 47 33 21 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -6 -7 -7 -4 0 2 4 5 7 6 8 LAND (KM) 2392 2380 2235 2123 2012 1825 1643 1503 1362 1191 973 800 644 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 8 7 7 8 9 10 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 32 28 28 38 31 18 11 7 11 1 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 12. 13. 11. 12. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 20. 29. 40. 45. 48. 46. 44. 39. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 132.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.81 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.39 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.90 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.69 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 108.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.26 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.95 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.6 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 33.0% 23.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 35.0% 31.5% 17.7% 10.5% 34.8% 33.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 1.4% 23.5% 18.7% 5.9% 3.5% 11.7% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##