* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/25/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 64 77 81 81 79 77 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 43 53 64 77 81 81 79 77 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 33 39 47 56 66 73 75 74 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 11 13 16 14 8 4 7 11 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -3 -5 -6 -7 -9 -8 -7 -5 -6 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 42 50 40 26 26 33 48 60 17 181 189 171 193 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.5 26.8 26.7 26.8 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 154 153 150 148 151 153 151 134 132 132 134 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 70 72 73 74 74 75 75 75 65 57 53 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 11 13 16 16 17 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 20 25 27 23 20 23 15 31 50 63 61 200 MB DIV 64 101 131 116 96 93 37 74 51 94 76 73 48 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -6 -6 -6 -5 -3 -2 -1 1 7 8 7 LAND (KM) 2571 2427 2284 2191 2123 2074 2068 2018 1831 1535 1234 950 750 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.0 13.3 15.3 17.4 18.5 18.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 132.1 133.8 135.2 136.2 136.9 137.3 137.1 137.0 138.1 140.4 143.1 145.8 147.9 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 8 5 2 5 9 14 15 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 26 31 30 31 32 31 31 36 5 10 6 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 441 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 9.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 28. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 28. 39. 52. 56. 56. 54. 52. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 132.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.53 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.77 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.1 to -1.7 0.43 -0.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 26.6% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 7.8% 9.4% 1.9% 0.9% 6.8% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 3.0% Consensus: 0.9% 12.4% 9.6% 0.7% 0.3% 2.3% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##