* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 39 50 59 68 77 81 83 83 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 39 50 59 68 77 81 83 83 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 50 61 73 83 87 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 3 5 6 10 13 6 7 4 2 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 -1 -4 -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 20 10 14 6 18 29 44 55 27 66 47 135 157 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.0 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 155 153 152 153 153 152 154 153 144 138 139 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 72 72 73 74 74 74 70 66 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 10 11 13 15 16 16 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -3 3 15 24 26 21 23 32 33 19 22 47 68 200 MB DIV 53 72 117 132 102 59 58 51 66 48 68 62 84 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -8 -6 -6 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 2214 2339 2443 2449 2313 2100 1981 1917 1849 1708 1535 1305 1084 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8 12.8 12.9 13.3 14.5 15.6 16.7 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 128.3 130.0 131.6 133.1 134.4 136.4 137.6 138.2 138.7 139.6 140.9 142.8 144.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 8 4 2 5 8 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 20 31 37 32 30 30 30 28 22 10 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 25. 34. 43. 52. 56. 58. 58. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 128.3 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.52 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.76 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.73 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.9% 21.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 12.1% 13.6% 2.6% 1.2% 14.0% 6.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 1.2% Consensus: 0.6% 15.4% 12.0% 0.9% 0.4% 4.7% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##