* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/25/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 37 46 56 65 73 78 81 82 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 37 46 56 65 73 78 81 82 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 48 58 70 80 88 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 7 3 5 9 10 8 2 6 6 4 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -1 -5 -7 -5 -4 -6 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 21 28 14 7 11 17 49 32 96 28 66 95 152 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 27.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 155 153 151 152 153 152 153 151 141 134 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 72 72 72 73 73 75 74 68 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 12 14 15 16 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 1 12 23 32 28 37 52 44 30 34 63 200 MB DIV 44 55 72 99 119 59 56 31 49 56 57 66 106 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -3 -7 -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 0 3 LAND (KM) 2073 2174 2283 2389 2486 2222 2048 1944 1884 1806 1724 1572 1392 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.6 14.6 16.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 126.4 128.0 129.5 131.1 132.6 135.1 136.7 137.7 138.3 139.0 139.4 140.4 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 10 6 3 3 4 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 23 22 20 28 34 31 31 31 30 29 22 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 12. 21. 31. 40. 48. 53. 56. 57. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.8 126.4 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.32 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.61 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.9% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 8.3% 10.5% 1.2% 0.5% 11.7% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.5% 13.7% 10.5% 0.4% 0.2% 3.9% 1.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##