* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/25/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 37 45 58 66 75 81 83 85 83 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 37 45 58 66 75 81 83 85 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 40 50 62 75 86 94 95 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 6 2 5 7 9 6 6 6 4 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -4 -2 -3 -5 -6 -6 -5 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 15 33 35 10 13 14 53 29 60 32 62 70 142 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.8 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 154 154 150 152 153 153 152 154 149 133 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.3 -53.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 68 69 71 72 76 77 77 73 64 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 10 11 14 16 16 17 18 850 MB ENV VOR -1 0 0 7 20 39 32 39 44 46 26 20 49 200 MB DIV 28 45 56 71 100 85 64 42 37 76 58 86 73 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -2 -5 -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1953 2033 2146 2262 2363 2295 2074 1953 1897 1887 1863 1763 1560 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.9 13.9 15.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 125.0 126.5 128.2 129.8 131.4 134.3 136.4 137.7 138.4 138.5 138.3 138.7 140.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 12 8 5 2 2 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 37 27 24 23 20 34 31 31 30 30 33 29 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 6. 10. 13. 12. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 12. 20. 33. 41. 50. 56. 58. 60. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 125.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.73 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.49 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 86.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.78 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.7% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 14.0% 11.6% 3.0% 1.4% 17.9% 5.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 8.2% 2.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.6% 17.3% 11.7% 1.2% 0.5% 6.0% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/25/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##