* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 59 68 74 77 78 80 80 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 50 59 68 74 77 78 80 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 43 52 61 69 76 83 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 5 6 6 10 10 17 8 5 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 -4 -5 -2 -6 -8 -7 -8 -7 SHEAR DIR 11 32 41 43 49 21 21 20 30 26 357 123 117 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 27.4 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 154 154 153 152 150 151 153 152 139 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 70 70 71 72 76 77 82 81 79 73 65 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 9 11 12 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 12 13 18 28 21 21 28 32 25 35 36 200 MB DIV 31 40 51 58 59 107 63 76 54 100 73 89 69 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -5 -6 -5 -4 -1 -2 -4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1969 2089 2229 2384 2507 2349 2190 2117 2083 2018 1834 1568 1294 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.3 13.3 14.9 16.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 124.5 126.5 128.4 130.2 131.8 134.4 136.0 136.7 136.8 137.0 138.2 140.3 142.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 18 17 15 10 5 2 3 7 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 28 23 21 20 32 32 32 31 31 37 17 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 25. 34. 43. 49. 52. 53. 55. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 124.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.85 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.33 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.74 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 73.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.80 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.31 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.9% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 21.8% 20.0% 5.7% 2.8% 24.1% 24.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.5% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 1.1% Consensus: 1.6% 19.7% 14.4% 2.0% 1.0% 8.2% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##