* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 54 62 68 73 77 78 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 46 54 62 68 73 77 78 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 33 37 43 49 56 64 73 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 5 8 7 8 6 2 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -3 -6 -6 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 33 360 7 13 8 6 355 12 352 72 187 118 86 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 153 152 152 152 150 149 151 151 145 141 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 72 73 73 74 77 77 78 76 71 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 4 1 0 1 0 4 15 7 15 33 33 34 21 200 MB DIV 37 37 44 56 67 88 95 35 47 61 74 76 102 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -5 -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1845 1931 2024 2123 2228 2408 2518 2323 2150 1961 1773 1586 1447 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.6 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.4 124.8 126.3 127.8 130.4 132.5 134.1 135.5 137.1 138.8 140.5 141.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 15 14 12 9 8 8 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 37 29 24 21 25 35 29 38 32 24 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 21. 29. 37. 43. 48. 52. 53. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 122.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.35 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.57 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.78 4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.40 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 64.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.81 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.1 to -1.7 0.23 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.6% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 26.7% 21.7% 7.0% 3.4% 23.4% 28.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.2% Consensus: 1.5% 20.3% 14.6% 2.5% 1.2% 8.0% 9.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##