* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/24/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 38 46 56 63 70 75 78 80 82 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 38 46 56 63 70 75 78 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 44 52 60 69 77 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 3 0 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -5 -5 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 49 43 18 26 24 21 9 16 3 26 184 117 102 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 152 152 154 152 153 151 148 149 152 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 75 72 73 74 74 76 76 77 75 74 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 10 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 8 5 2 0 2 3 15 18 18 37 51 44 43 200 MB DIV 31 40 47 50 55 62 100 54 48 34 81 70 114 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -3 -3 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1752 1837 1931 2022 2130 2332 2475 2406 2242 2074 1896 1692 1525 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.5 14.2 14.6 14.9 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 122.0 123.4 124.9 126.4 129.3 131.7 133.4 134.7 136.1 137.7 139.6 141.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 13 10 8 7 7 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 23 27 43 35 27 23 31 28 33 42 29 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 13. 21. 31. 38. 45. 50. 53. 55. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.9 120.7 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.83 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.40 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.55 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.72 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.38 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.25 -0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.7% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 20.8% 16.4% 5.6% 2.7% 18.5% 23.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 7.8% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 1.5% Consensus: 1.0% 18.8% 13.0% 2.1% 1.0% 6.3% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##