* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 87 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 49 58 67 75 81 86 88 87 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 34 41 49 60 73 86 94 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 5 5 5 8 11 6 5 6 7 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 58 79 72 76 57 60 74 82 45 97 57 78 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 151 152 152 153 154 151 149 147 147 149 150 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 71 72 73 74 77 79 75 73 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 11 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 7 7 7 10 21 25 28 35 42 44 38 200 MB DIV 12 22 35 34 43 42 57 53 46 44 47 76 59 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1519 1608 1711 1822 1945 2215 2427 2400 2260 2187 2141 2065 1943 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.5 13.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 117.9 119.6 121.3 123.1 125.0 128.6 131.5 133.5 134.8 135.4 135.7 136.3 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 17 12 8 4 3 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 22 19 42 28 24 32 33 31 30 32 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 24. 33. 42. 50. 56. 61. 63. 62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 117.9 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 38.9 to 2.1 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.27 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 59.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.1 to -1.7 0.06 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 13.7% 6.7% 2.0% 0.8% 6.8% 7.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% Consensus: 0.4% 14.1% 8.5% 0.7% 0.3% 2.3% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##