* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/23/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 43 52 60 68 74 81 85 86 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 43 52 60 68 74 81 85 86 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 45 54 66 79 91 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 9 8 8 9 10 11 8 6 5 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -7 -7 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 39 53 65 89 93 83 46 60 70 82 53 70 26 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 154 150 153 154 155 152 149 148 148 147 147 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 74 76 77 74 71 73 70 73 75 77 77 73 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 11 13 15 16 850 MB ENV VOR 1 8 12 10 12 20 27 32 35 30 35 44 39 200 MB DIV 1 19 36 40 30 41 34 59 40 61 64 85 54 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 1 1 0 -6 -3 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1422 1469 1557 1671 1777 2065 2345 2416 2250 2186 2177 2153 2066 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.6 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.7 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 117.7 119.5 121.3 123.1 127.1 130.6 133.3 134.9 135.5 135.5 135.5 136.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 18 18 19 19 16 10 5 2 2 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 22 22 19 27 26 31 33 31 30 29 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 18. 27. 35. 43. 49. 56. 60. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 116.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/23/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 38.9 to 2.1 0.23 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.41 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.25 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 56.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.82 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.1 to -1.7 0.11 -0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.3% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 8.2% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 2.5% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 7.7% 4.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/23/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##