* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 41 51 57 65 71 78 79 78 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 32 41 51 57 65 71 78 79 78 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 30 36 42 50 59 70 79 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 13 10 9 7 13 11 8 5 2 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -3 -3 -4 -2 -4 -4 -7 -5 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 35 46 59 68 81 83 51 39 46 73 4 337 246 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 151 153 154 152 152 153 152 152 151 149 147 143 145 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 76 75 77 78 77 74 73 75 75 77 77 73 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 11 13 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 14 16 14 20 21 22 20 13 13 23 31 200 MB DIV -15 3 32 43 40 43 38 60 59 53 55 45 68 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -4 -2 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 1497 1517 1579 1666 1788 2023 2276 2473 2530 2461 2392 2266 2069 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.6 11.6 11.4 11.4 11.9 12.6 13.6 14.9 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 117.0 118.6 120.2 122.0 125.5 128.6 131.0 132.5 132.9 133.2 134.0 135.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 17 14 10 5 4 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 23 23 22 42 28 22 24 29 29 18 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 7. 16. 26. 32. 40. 46. 53. 54. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.5 115.5 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.84 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.29 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 38.9 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.32 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -11.0 to 135.3 0.22 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 41.2 638.0 to -68.2 0.85 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.30 -0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 2.6% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.5% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.8% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##