* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 08/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 54 63 69 74 80 83 85 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 46 54 63 69 74 80 83 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 30 34 38 44 51 60 69 78 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 9 12 15 16 12 8 8 7 4 1 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -2 0 -3 -3 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 39 57 42 34 49 65 75 59 20 20 26 242 348 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 151 152 152 152 151 150 151 146 140 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 72 74 76 74 79 74 72 70 73 72 72 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 12 11 13 20 12 9 -2 -2 6 17 30 200 MB DIV -1 -1 10 -1 15 52 7 4 37 66 71 75 46 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -6 -6 -7 -4 -1 0 -2 -3 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 1297 1369 1459 1547 1617 1800 2006 2171 2283 2334 2318 2299 2321 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.2 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.7 11.7 13.1 14.3 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.5 114.8 116.2 117.6 120.5 123.3 125.8 128.0 129.6 130.8 131.8 133.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 9 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 22 24 24 33 29 35 22 18 20 22 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 38. 44. 49. 55. 58. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.0 112.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 08/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.82 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.28 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 38.9 to 2.1 0.49 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.11 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 54.0 638.0 to -68.2 0.83 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.39 -0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.6% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 22.0% 8.0% 4.3% 1.9% 4.7% 7.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 5.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.8% 1.1% Consensus: 1.5% 15.8% 7.6% 1.5% 0.6% 1.8% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 08/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##