* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 07/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 48 54 68 79 87 91 91 93 91 87 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 48 54 68 79 87 91 91 93 91 87 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 57 66 74 78 79 79 77 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 4 2 7 5 4 2 3 4 0 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -6 -4 0 -2 0 0 1 -5 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 33 14 19 10 1 24 38 35 47 35 83 87 249 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.1 28.8 28.0 27.4 27.2 26.6 26.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 153 152 152 156 153 144 137 135 129 123 118 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 82 81 83 81 82 80 78 76 75 73 72 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 13 15 17 19 21 21 23 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -41 -32 -19 -4 -2 -5 4 14 17 45 34 64 200 MB DIV 88 105 98 97 103 98 78 73 66 66 51 49 30 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -4 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 532 530 532 526 513 609 781 839 904 982 1047 1120 1239 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 10 11 9 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 50 58 52 35 23 22 23 11 7 9 6 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 16. 18. 18. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 24. 38. 49. 57. 61. 61. 63. 61. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.7 105.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 07/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.45 4.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.1 40.3 to 144.5 0.80 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.57 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 38.9 to 2.1 0.73 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.75 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -1.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.91 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.1 to -1.7 0.71 -1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.3 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.1 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 50% is 8.4 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 16.6% 55.1% 34.1% 22.4% 0.0% 36.0% 49.7% Logistic: 10.7% 44.0% 44.8% 26.1% 17.8% 54.4% 67.5% Bayesian: 1.4% 45.2% 28.1% 10.1% 4.7% 17.8% 34.2% Consensus: 9.6% 48.1% 35.6% 19.6% 7.5% 36.1% 50.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 07/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##