* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 07/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 45 59 70 77 80 79 77 76 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 45 59 70 77 80 79 77 76 74 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 52 58 59 56 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 8 11 14 12 10 11 9 7 2 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -6 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 2 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 40 15 29 50 60 64 30 337 304 302 296 58 54 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.5 26.7 25.8 26.0 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 155 153 152 149 152 155 152 134 123 123 132 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 4 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 82 80 80 79 76 73 71 69 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 10 11 13 15 16 18 19 19 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -34 -41 -37 -25 -7 2 12 14 15 21 28 28 200 MB DIV 69 99 99 101 118 137 93 82 44 55 31 51 42 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -5 -1 -1 0 0 -7 -4 -10 -4 -2 0 LAND (KM) 554 567 620 679 733 812 790 726 686 819 1075 1324 1444 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.8 13.9 13.8 13.4 13.8 15.4 17.4 18.6 18.5 17.5 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 104.2 105.5 106.8 107.9 108.7 109.4 109.6 110.4 113.0 116.6 120.2 122.4 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 9 7 1 5 13 18 18 15 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 61 47 19 18 18 18 23 20 6 3 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 15. 16. 16. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 20. 34. 45. 52. 55. 54. 52. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 104.2 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.47 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 38.9 to 2.1 0.50 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.2 -11.0 to 135.3 0.74 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -0.6 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.84 -1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.9% 20.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 15.1% 14.7% 4.7% 2.3% 14.8% 18.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 7.3% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 4.9% Consensus: 1.5% 17.1% 12.6% 1.8% 0.8% 5.1% 7.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##