* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 07/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 30 34 40 54 64 71 74 75 73 75 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 40 54 64 71 74 75 73 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 51 54 53 52 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 11 16 13 9 7 10 6 5 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 3 -2 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 51 356 2 19 44 61 60 357 312 256 310 59 74 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.1 27.1 26.6 26.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 156 154 153 149 153 154 159 138 131 130 135 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -54.3 -53.3 -53.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 79 78 79 78 78 77 75 72 72 73 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 10 14 15 16 18 21 21 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -37 -45 -47 -43 -15 -4 18 17 10 16 36 31 200 MB DIV 63 60 85 92 112 140 116 85 45 27 43 79 71 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -6 -4 -6 0 0 LAND (KM) 686 706 748 789 839 868 813 680 691 759 1045 1267 1298 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.5 12.9 14.6 16.8 18.1 17.6 16.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 104.1 105.5 106.7 107.6 108.4 108.9 108.6 109.0 111.3 115.2 118.8 120.3 119.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 10 8 6 0 5 12 19 19 14 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 25 53 60 43 29 23 23 18 28 4 5 5 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 14. 20. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 12. 15. 17. 20. 19. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 9. 15. 29. 39. 46. 49. 50. 48. 50. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 104.1 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.0 40.3 to 144.5 0.87 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 0.0 to 75.9 0.55 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.62 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.49 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.64 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 15.8 638.0 to -68.2 0.88 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.1 to -1.7 0.58 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.5% 21.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 4.4% 6.6% 0.7% 0.3% 6.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 9.4% 3.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 14.8% 10.7% 0.5% 0.1% 2.2% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##