* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 07/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 35 40 54 64 72 78 81 83 84 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 35 40 54 64 72 78 81 83 84 83 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 31 36 42 48 55 61 64 65 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 6 8 10 11 9 6 5 4 3 5 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -4 -5 -7 -4 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 77 55 357 336 359 45 38 49 7 295 10 7 10 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 158 158 154 153 155 152 142 139 137 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 78 74 75 76 77 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 8 9 9 14 15 17 18 21 23 25 27 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -28 -25 -36 -41 -16 -1 3 -8 4 16 28 31 200 MB DIV 89 72 76 98 105 108 101 71 71 59 78 78 61 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 2 -3 0 -3 -1 0 LAND (KM) 622 642 651 659 651 639 632 677 789 875 974 1028 1067 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.7 13.6 14.5 15.5 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.5 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 101.8 102.7 103.6 104.5 105.4 106.8 108.1 109.9 112.2 114.4 116.0 117.1 118.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 11 11 9 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 22 30 53 50 18 25 23 10 11 11 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 13. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 29. 39. 47. 53. 56. 58. 59. 58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.5 101.8 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 3.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.9 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 0.0 to 75.9 0.38 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.68 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 2.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.1 to -1.7 0.48 -0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 35.9% 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 14.5% 19.4% 3.2% 1.8% 25.7% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 11.6% 5.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.4% 20.7% 15.9% 1.5% 0.7% 8.6% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##