* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982016 07/14/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 73 82 91 95 100 100 98 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 58 73 82 91 95 100 100 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 31 34 42 51 59 69 78 82 82 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 7 8 13 9 7 4 3 1 7 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -10 -6 -6 -6 -1 0 -1 -2 1 7 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 77 92 55 346 359 32 46 45 42 347 67 25 22 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.1 27.6 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 158 157 155 152 154 155 146 140 138 134 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.2 -54.2 -53.2 -53.3 -52.3 -53.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 80 81 80 81 80 75 75 76 77 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 8 9 11 15 16 19 22 25 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -25 -31 -30 -33 -31 -5 8 6 5 26 32 41 200 MB DIV 116 95 81 78 90 111 126 106 65 97 72 64 79 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 1 1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 597 617 635 661 672 694 688 680 759 829 979 1143 1202 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.7 14.6 15.8 16.3 16.3 15.8 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.9 103.0 104.0 104.9 106.6 107.7 109.0 111.1 113.7 116.2 117.9 118.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 9 9 7 7 10 13 13 11 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 20 24 36 65 22 18 27 13 11 19 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 14. 19. 22. 26. 25. 25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 20. 33. 48. 57. 66. 70. 75. 75. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.4 101.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.5 40.3 to 144.5 0.89 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 75.9 0.34 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 38.9 to 2.1 0.65 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.61 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 -11.0 to 135.3 0.70 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): -0.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.90 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.1 to -1.7 0.56 -0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 81.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.1% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.4% 43.4% 36.3% 20.3% 13.5% 42.2% 53.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 9.8% 4.0% 0.9% 0.2% 2.6% 11.8% Consensus: 4.1% 28.1% 20.5% 7.1% 4.6% 14.9% 21.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982016 INVEST 07/14/16 00 UTC ##