* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 34 37 49 62 78 90 96 102 102 102 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 34 37 49 62 78 90 96 102 102 102 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 32 37 47 61 76 87 93 94 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 10 10 11 18 15 20 18 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 2 2 7 -5 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 27 25 45 36 35 46 67 65 53 36 26 30 41 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 161 160 160 159 155 154 154 154 150 146 143 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.0 -52.8 -51.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 78 76 76 78 79 76 77 77 79 79 76 78 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 14 16 22 26 28 32 33 35 850 MB ENV VOR 7 1 -1 -6 -12 -13 -3 19 64 80 72 89 66 200 MB DIV 29 18 38 40 31 102 69 82 100 120 76 103 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 0 -1 -9 -6 -9 -8 0 LAND (KM) 528 548 568 586 598 697 800 916 1062 1096 1104 1151 1162 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 11 10 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 29 28 30 40 34 41 27 43 20 11 6 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 31. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 13. 20. 24. 30. 30. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 19. 32. 48. 60. 66. 72. 72. 72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 101.5 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.65 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 1.8 to 106.7 0.27 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.22 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 28.0 721.6 to -82.5 0.86 -3.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.4% 18.0% 12.2% 7.8% 16.9% 18.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 27.9% 12.5% 5.3% 3.3% 8.0% 9.2% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 2.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.7% 14.7% 1.2% Consensus: 2.9% 16.3% 10.3% 5.8% 3.7% 9.2% 14.2% 5.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 5.0% 23.0% 86.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX