* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/29/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 24 27 40 54 69 85 94 96 100 100 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 24 27 40 54 69 85 94 96 100 100 V (KT) LGEM 25 22 21 20 21 24 29 38 50 63 72 78 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 9 8 7 10 15 11 14 21 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 4 5 5 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 359 12 25 30 34 30 82 74 62 32 31 32 358 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 161 160 160 159 156 154 154 155 152 149 146 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 74 75 77 77 76 73 76 75 75 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 15 18 22 27 30 31 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 17 3 -5 -13 -17 -9 -18 21 67 93 108 96 88 200 MB DIV 61 31 11 37 54 96 91 30 100 99 86 60 78 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -3 -10 -9 -11 -1 LAND (KM) 520 546 573 598 627 673 771 863 962 1062 1089 1113 1105 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 11 10 7 7 10 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 22 24 24 28 44 35 26 27 42 17 13 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 8. 16. 25. 30. 34. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 12. 21. 27. 29. 31. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 2. 15. 29. 44. 60. 69. 71. 75. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.9 100.4 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/29/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.57 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.20 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.9% 16.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 6.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2.9% 6.0% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 0.2% 7.6% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 5.6% 7.6% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 20.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/29/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX