* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 50 63 76 82 91 92 96 97 94 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 50 63 76 82 91 92 96 97 94 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 46 56 68 81 92 99 104 104 99 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 8 9 9 6 8 12 16 20 23 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 -2 2 -2 -2 1 2 SHEAR DIR 322 346 14 13 30 41 19 17 30 47 35 42 4 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 162 162 160 158 154 155 156 157 154 152 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -52.5 -53.2 -52.5 -53.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 79 78 77 75 75 79 79 83 82 82 79 78 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 14 18 19 24 25 28 30 30 850 MB ENV VOR 32 21 13 2 -7 -4 -1 2 16 47 69 90 98 200 MB DIV 88 65 38 25 49 63 124 55 138 124 81 76 104 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -6 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 457 476 511 545 585 673 745 782 769 786 948 978 1000 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.4 12.2 12.0 12.1 13.0 14.1 14.7 15.3 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 99.0 100.1 101.1 102.1 103.0 104.6 105.9 106.8 108.0 109.9 112.5 114.7 116.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 5 6 9 13 12 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 23 26 25 28 35 35 34 22 29 22 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 16. 17. 22. 25. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 3. 4. 9. 11. 9. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 28. 41. 47. 56. 57. 61. 62. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.0 99.0 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.79 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 5.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 1.8 to 106.7 0.19 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.6 721.6 to -82.5 0.85 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.0% 25.9% 24.0% 16.6% 10.8% 20.8% 22.9% 36.0% Logistic: 8.8% 37.2% 21.7% 12.8% 3.7% 25.2% 41.9% 53.4% Bayesian: 1.3% 40.7% 17.6% 5.6% 1.6% 6.6% 12.2% 33.3% Consensus: 8.0% 34.6% 21.1% 11.7% 5.4% 17.6% 25.7% 40.9% DTOPS: 20.0% 15.0% 12.0% 10.0% 2.0% 13.0% 64.0% 94.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX