* EAST PACIFIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962018 09/28/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 28 34 44 60 76 85 92 93 93 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 28 34 44 60 76 85 92 93 93 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 39 47 53 57 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 5 7 10 9 12 9 28 24 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 -2 0 0 7 -1 1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 241 272 328 338 352 349 15 13 32 44 38 27 25 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 157 160 163 164 162 161 160 156 152 154 154 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 6 6 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 81 80 78 78 79 76 81 79 80 82 84 83 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 13 15 18 24 28 31 34 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 48 44 34 22 19 19 2 6 7 49 79 92 85 200 MB DIV 80 75 91 79 62 76 52 106 124 133 135 117 98 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 -2 -11 LAND (KM) 493 478 456 436 438 450 498 552 683 838 979 980 905 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.6 13.4 12.9 13.7 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.2 97.8 98.5 99.4 101.1 103.1 105.2 107.5 109.8 111.2 112.0 113.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 9 4 9 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 13 17 20 31 41 50 30 36 25 29 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=584) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 8. 16. 25. 31. 35. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 26. 30. 30. 31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 3. 9. 19. 35. 51. 60. 67. 68. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.3 96.8 ** 2018 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.85 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 1.8 to 106.7 0.12 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 721.6 to -82.5 0.87 -3.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.1% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 19.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 41.7% 28.6% 14.2% 4.1% 24.3% 25.0% 35.4% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.2% 17.9% Consensus: 2.0% 21.4% 14.8% 4.7% 1.4% 13.8% 15.5% 17.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 8.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 3.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962018 INVEST 09/28/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX